Oil Country

Right now, until Wade is issued his GE car, he’s driving a small Toyota Corolla. It costs him 18 Riyals to fill it up, which translates roughly to $5.75. I repeat $5.75. If I could drive, I would be tempted to find a Suburban, just so I could gleefully fill it for $12 once a week.

On the day to day, it’s easy to forget we are in the midst of the wealthiest country in the world. Mostly, because all of that money doesn’t seem to be being put to good use.  The pockets with which the Saudi’s are pulling from are unbelievably deep. Depth, that frankly, is hard for me to wrap my head around. I feel like I saw a fair amount of wealth living in South Orange County, frequently making the drive up to Newport Beach. But the level of wealth here, particularly amongst the Royal Family, makes Newport seem like a drop in the bucket. Just for being born an Al-Saud entitles you to 35,000 Riyals a month, approximately $10,000. A family with several children can easily garner $100,000 a month. Many Royals have invested wisely and count their bank accounts in the 100’s of millions. Tessa attends school with many Al-Saud’s and they are easy to pick out with their beautiful abaya’s, Jimmy Choo’s and Prada bags, climbing into their Bentley’s or Maybach’s. Recently, I’ve been reading an autobiography of a princess who admits to dropping $350,000 on a trip to Bergdorf Goodman in New York. Are you wrapping you head around this? It’s hard right?! Here’s where it gets a little unsettling.

There is a huge lack of infrastructure, neighborhoods are totally underdeveloped, parks and gardens are nearly impossible to come by.  Buildings are old and run down, there are many areas that are dirty, and small children knock on my car window begging for money. The Saudi government has been accused of paying off, or giving handouts to large populations of people to keep them compliant, to keep them quiet and to keep them from rising up against the Royal family. In many ways, I admire the thousands that have risen up in other countries in the region in the wake of Arab spring. It is no easy thing to be courageous. Particularly in Saudi, when the consequences are grave and when the pay outs are generous. When we were in Beirut last week, I told Wade I thought I could live in Beirut. He correctly pointed out though that it’s pretty unstable, lots of uprisings, lots of contention, Lebanon is one of those in the Middle East that finds themselves in a delicate and fragile state. But I commented back, that I appreciated their spirit, their fight. That they were no longer willing to roll over for a suppressive and money grubbing aristocracy. At some point, the Saudi’s are going to tire of it as well. They will tire of the Royal’s bottomless pockets and the women’s unspeakable oppression.

And when they do, it’s going to be ugly. Here is an excerpt from this autobiography I’ve been reading, this is a conversation between two royals, married to one another:

‘Nothing lasts forever’, Kareem mused, ‘I greatly fear that Saudi Arabia will tread the same path taken by Iran and Afghanistan. The Islamic Fundamentalist ripple is growing into a tidal wave that will engulf every Muslim country. Besides, the only reason we’re still in power today is because the United States needs Saudi oil. One day that need will be filled by some other fuel source. Already, scientists are starting to find substitutes for the fuel needs of the West. When that day comes, Saudi Arabia, our family, will be expendable to the Americans. All American politicians are self serving. They’ll throw us to the jackals the moment our usefulness is gone.’  I stared at Kareem. ‘Even if we no longer rule, couldn’t we live in quiet obscurity in our own country?’ ‘No’, Kareem sighed, ‘We will be burdened by our name, we will be hated by everyone.’ I knew what my husband was saying was true. We have a saying that ‘Arabs are either at your feet or at your throat’ and I knew that in one swift moment our fortunes could be reversed. Kareem sighed wearily, ‘We’ve got no one to blame but ourselves Sultana. What have we done to endear ourselves to the religious leaders? Nothing. What have we done to reassure the business community? Nothing. Our fathers do not listen to their sons. A few concessions here and there would do no harm. But, no. Our fathers are deaf. They can hear nothing but the ghost of their own father, a man who thought of himself as the hammer, and his subjects the nails.’

I am hoping that Kareem is wrong when he speaks of Islamic Fundamentalism sweeping the Middle East, I was hoping for democracy, but here is where I believe he is right… 1. Saudi will indeed run out of oil one day. According to a 25 year Aramco employee that we chatted with for awhile at the airport, that day is swiftly approaching. His estimate was that with in the next 20 years, oil exports will have dropped from 11 million barrels a day (what Saudi is exporting now) to 1 million a day. And when that happens, he is right, the US will have absolutely zero interest or need for this country and they probably will, shamefully, cast them to the jackals. 2. This means the Saudi Royal family becomes destitute quickly, the 35,000 Riyals a month becomes impossible to payout, as does the hush money to control the population 3. The Saudi’s have failed miserably to diversify themselves financially and economically. The UAE has done a MUCH better job of this. They have invited much international business into their country. Their real estate, tourism, consumer spending, investment companies have all found great success in Dubai, when that country runs out of oil, they will have something else to fall back on. Saudi’s strict adherence to Islam and their belief that anything Western will corrupt their population has kept them from doing the same. And 4. Their failure to build a military that could defend them in a domestic or international attack will prove to be a regret as well.

Is is tragic to me that a country with so much wealth, with so much opportunity to create a nation with extraordinary influence economically and politically, and a country whose history and culture is so rich, has failed to do so. They have mistakenly padded the pockets of a few and in doing so squandered a chance to put their nation at the forefront of the world’s players. It is going to be fascinating and perhaps devastating, to watch what happens here in the next 20 years.